First Notice

The residential program market, before it hits the trades.

This Week in Programs: Landlord & Homeowners

Issue #10 · October 5, 2026 · covering September 28 to October 5

Homeowners insurance made money: a $16.5 billion underwriting profit in 2025, AM Best says, the line's first since 2019. A day later AM Best said unrated reinsurers are taking more of the credit risk behind upwards of $30 billion of fronting. Also: Texas proposed restating its ban on declining homes for their age.

Update, October 2026: Isaias became the season's first hurricane on October 7 and made landfall near Destin, Florida on October 9.


AM Best reported on September 29 that US homeowners insurers earned a $16.5 billion underwriting profit in 2025, the line's first underwriting gain since 2019, on an 84.5 combined ratio. One day later the same agency put total US fronting premium upwards of $30 billion and said unrated and unauthorized reinsurers are taking on more of the credit risk behind that paper. Florida approved a 12.8% renters rate decrease at American Modern on October 2, North Carolina's first 5.0% dwelling increase took effect October 1, and Texas proposed a rule on September 29 restating that insurers may not decline home coverage based on the age of a house or its roof.

Capacity & fronting

AM Best put US fronting premium upwards of $30 billion and flagged unrated reinsurers behind it. AM Best's special report "'Front' and Center: A Review of the Property/Casualty Fronting Market," released September 30, puts premium generated through fronting arrangements at upwards of $30 billion in 2025. Fronting specialists grew from $1.8 billion of direct written premium in 2015 to nearly $20 billion, with double-digit growth in every year from 2015 through 2025. AM Best counts roughly 30 organizations carrying fronting operations and analyzes 16 rated specialists, and sets the segment against $108.7 billion of MGA-generated US property and casualty premium, about 10% of the market. Additional credit risk is finding its way into the segment through the involvement of unrated and unauthorized reinsurers, according to the report. Insurance Business, reporting on the study, said five carriers have already exited or de-emphasized fronting and two more have a pending combination under common ownership; AM Best's own release does not carry that count. (Insurance Business, AM Best release)

→ For MGA operators and fronting carriers: once AM Best names unrated and unauthorized reinsurers as added credit risk in a $30 billion market, the reinsurer panel behind a front is the clause that matters, and the five carriers Insurance Business says have exited or de-emphasized fronting leave fewer fronts to shop.

Cat bonds set a nine-month record of $18.9 billion, with 14 new sponsors at the table. Artemis published its Q3 2026 Catastrophe Bond and ILS Market Report on October 1, recording $948 million of third-quarter issuance across 10 transactions and 15 tranches, of which $845.5 million was Rule 144A property catastrophe bonds and $102.4 million privately placed or cat bond lite. Nine-month issuance set a record at $18.9 billion, the outstanding market stood at $65.5 billion at the end of the quarter, and 14 new sponsors have come to market in 2026, Porch Group and Nectaris Re among them. Swiss Re and Hannover Re brought the quarter's two largest deals. (Artemis)

→ For MGA operators and reinsurers/ILS: Porch Group reaching 144A in 2026 alongside 13 other first-time sponsors marks the size at which a reciprocal-backed homeowners platform can sponsor its own bond, and a program renewing at January 1 negotiates against a $65.5 billion outstanding market, up 7% from the end of 2025 after an above-average third quarter.

Stone Ridge and Victory Pioneer added about $2 billion of cat bond buying power this year. Artemis reported on September 30 that Stone Ridge Asset Management's High Yield Reinsurance Risk Premium Fund is near $5 billion, up from $4.74 billion at July 31, having added more than $900 million year to date and more than $1.15 billion over 12 months. Stone Ridge's Reinsurance Risk Premium Interval Fund stands at about $1.66 billion, taking its three 40 Act funds to roughly $7.6 billion, about 30% growth in a year. The Victory Pioneer CAT Bond Fund reached $2.76 billion at September month end from $1.74 billion at the end of 2025, more than half of that added since June, with the Victory Pioneer ILS Interval Fund at $898 million. (Artemis on Stone Ridge, Artemis on Victory Pioneer)

→ For reinsurers/ILS and PE-VC investors: Mutual fund money is now a real bid in cat bonds: Stone Ridge's three 40 Act funds sit near $7.6 billion, up about 30% in a year, and Victory Pioneer's cat bond fund went from $1.74 billion to $2.76 billion this year.

Eight named storms, zero hurricanes: the Atlantic, as of late September. AccuWeather reported on September 29 that the 2026 Atlantic season reached late September with eight named storms and zero hurricanes. October 8, set in 1905, is the latest date on record for a season's first hurricane, and 1907 and 1914 are the only seasons to finish without a known hurricane since record keeping began in 1851. Lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva attributed the suppression to a record-strong El Nino raising wind shear over parts of the Atlantic. (AccuWeather)

→ For reinsurers/ILS and fronting carriers: With no Atlantic hurricane through September 29, 2026 US wind losses have come from tropical storms well short of the scale that reprices January 1, 2027 property treaties, so a homeowners program (as of October 5) has grounds to seek a lower attachment point alongside lower rate.

Market entries & movers

Homeowners made money underwriting in 2025. $16.5 billion of it, the first gain since 2019. AM Best reported on September 29 that the homeowners multiperil line earned $16.5 billion of underwriting profit in 2025 against a $1.3 billion loss in 2024, on a combined ratio of 84.5 from 90.7 in 2024 and 99.5 in 2023. It was the line's first underwriting gain since 2019, after losses in seven of the eight years from 2017 through 2024, and it included $4.1 billion of favorable prior-year reserve development, 47% of which came from USAA, American Family, Liberty Mutual, Chubb and RenaissanceRe US. "Homeowners insurers have put resources into improving their underwriting, claim handling, loss control, and overall efficiency to produce improved bottom-line results," AM Best senior financial analyst Maurice Thomas said. (Insurance Journal)

→ For PE-VC investors and reinsurers/ILS: $4.1 billion of the profit came from favorable prior-year reserve development, 47% of it in five groups, so a chunk of that 84.5 combined ratio comes from older reserves rather than the 2025 book.

AXA XL opens a wholesale-only surplus lines carrier, with property coming in late 2027. AXA XL announced on September 30 that it has established AXA XL Excess & Surplus Lines Insurance Company, NAIC number 17863, distributing solely through wholesale brokers. The company holds an A+ (Superior) financial strength rating from AM Best as of March 25, 2026 and an AA from S&P Global Ratings as of April 1, 2026, and participates in the same AXA XL pool as Indian Harbor Insurance Company. Excess and surplus casualty new business begins in early 2027 with existing policies transferring mid-2027, and excess and surplus property follows in the latter part of 2027, alongside a new Guidewire policy administration platform. Neither the announcement nor the trade coverage names residential, habitational or dwelling property. (AXA XL, Insurance Business)

→ For wholesalers and program administrators: an A+ and AA rated carrier writing excess and surplus property through wholesale brokers alone is new capacity for late 2027, and neither the announcement nor the trade coverage mentions residential.

Orion180 closed at $9.44, 21% below its offer price, and Bamboo stayed on the shelf. Orion180 Insurance Group closed at $9.44 on October 2, down 2.68% on the day, within a 52-week range of $9.03 to $12.06 against the $12.00 price at which it sold 20,000,000 shares on September 17. No exercise of the underwriters' 3,000,000-share option, no analyst initiation and no lock-up development appeared in the week. Bamboo Insurance Services, which postponed its NYSE offering of 35,000,000 secondary shares on September 22, announced no revival, and Renaissance Capital still carries the $665 million deal as postponed at an $18.00 to $20.00 range. (StockAnalysis, Renaissance Capital)

→ For PE-VC investors: Orion180 at $9.44 trades 21% below its own September 17 offer price, so CVC Capital Partners and White Mountains are holding Bamboo against a public comp that public buyers have already marked down.

Florida Citizens lost agencies and agents as its book fell below 260,000 policies. Insurance Journal reported on September 30 that Citizens Property Insurance Corporation's appointed agencies fell to 5,481 in July 2026 from 5,786 in December 2022, and individual appointed agents fell 3% to 13,403 in July 2026 from a peak of 13,800 in December 2025. Citizens' policy count is under 260,000, from about 1.4 million in 2023. By July 2026, 79% of appointed agencies held fewer than 50 Citizens policies and only 11 agencies managed more than 2,000 policyholders. "There's less reliance on Citizens, which is good for the market," said Dave Newell, chairman of Citizens' Market Accountability Advisory Committee. (Insurance Journal)

→ For state entrants and program administrators: 79% of appointed agencies now hold fewer than 50 Citizens policies each, so for the bulk of them Citizens is a sideline, while 11 agencies still manage more than 2,000 policyholders.

Rate & regulatory

Oregon extended its wildfire nonrenewal freeze to October 29 while Washington's expired. The Oregon Division of Financial Regulation announced on September 29 that it extended the 2026 Wildfire Emergency Order another 30 days, to October 29, the second extension after the order was issued July 31 and first extended August 28. In the ZIP codes listed in Bulletin No. DFR 2026-6, property and casualty insurers must suspend cancellations and nonrenewals, grant premium grace periods and extend claim reporting deadlines. Washington's Emergency Order No. 26-01, filed as WSR 26-16-059 and signed by Commissioner Patty Kuderer on August 3, operated by its own terms "between August 3, 2026, and September 30, 2026," requiring grace periods of no less than 45 days and extending the property nonrenewal notice period from 60 days to 120 days. No extension of the Washington order appeared on the OIC news page as of October 5. (Oregon DFR, Washington order)

→ For MGA operators and fronting carriers: Washington wildfire-ZIP nonrenewals reopened on October 1 under a 60-day notice while Oregon's remain frozen to October 29, so a Pacific Northwest book needs two separate Q4 nonrenewal calendars.

Texas proposed restating its ban on declining homes for the age of the house or its components. The Texas Department of Insurance announced on September 29 that it is clarifying its rule that insurers cannot decline or nonrenew a home insurance policy based on the age of a house or its roof, with the bar extending to roofing, electrical wiring, heating and air conditioning, plumbing and siding. Insurers may still underwrite on documented physical condition. "Texans deserve fair access to home insurance, no matter the age of their home," Commissioner Amanda Crawford said. The existing rule, 28 TAC section 21.1006, already prohibits declining residential property coverage based on the age or value of the property; the September 29 amendment is a proposal and has not been adopted, though several outlets reported it as if it were in force. TDI has opened Docket 2874, a Property Age and Value Clarification Rule hearing, filed under November 2026. The proposal follows Governor Greg Abbott's August 24 directives to TDI. (Live Insurance News, beinsure, TDI proposal)

→ For MGA operators: Declining on roof age is already barred under 28 TAC 21.1006; the Docket 2874 hearing on November 3 is where condition-based declination guidelines get their first regulatory read.

California doubled its post-disaster nonrenewal moratorium to two years. Governor Gavin Newsom signed AB 2038 on September 30, extending the cancellation and nonrenewal moratorium for properties in ZIP codes within or adjacent to a fire perimeter after a declared disaster from one year to two. For total-loss homes the mandatory renewal obligation rises from at least two annual renewal periods and no less than 24 months to at least three renewal periods and no less than 36 months. The bill keeps the ZIP code architecture of SB 824 from 2018 and takes effect January 1, 2027. Assemblymember John Harabedian (D-Pasadena) authored it with Rick Chavez Zbur of Hollywood. (Governor of California, Pasadena Now)

→ For fronting carriers: A 24-month freeze plus a 36-month total-loss renewal obligation from January 1, 2027 extends the exit on any California wildfire-exposed homeowners program, so the termination provisions in a 2027 California fronting agreement have to carry three years of runoff.

California's FAIR Plan has to show its work, ZIP code by ZIP code, every quarter. Newsom also signed AB 2061 on September 30, amending Insurance Code section 10095.5 and adding section 10095.9 to require the California FAIR Plan Association to post quarterly on its website the number of policies it issues in each ZIP code, its risk exposure, and the number of policyholders removed through the clearinghouse program. The Assembly concurred 78 to 0 on August 31. Assemblymember Phillip Chen of Brea carried the bill with Senator Roger Niello. (Governor of California, Assembly Insurance Committee analysis)

→ For program administrators and state entrants: once the counts post, anyone can see where FAIR Plan policies sit and how many policyholders the clearinghouse is moving out.

California's SB 876 makes residential insurers file a disaster recovery plan and doubles emergency-period penalties. The California Department of Insurance said on September 28 that SB 876, chaptered September 27 as Chapter 656, Statutes of 2026, requires residential property insurers to file a disaster recovery plan with the Department covering claims handling and timelines, doubles penalties for fair claims practices violations during a declared emergency, requires restitution paid directly to policyholders, requires a status report to the policyholder within 15 days of a new adjuster assignment, mandates an offer of extended replacement cost and additional living expense coverage at issuance, and applies building code upgrade coverage at the time of rebuild. Senator Steve Padilla of San Diego authored it and Commissioner Ricardo Lara sponsored it. A second release on September 30 listed the balance of the signed package, including AB 1795 on smoke damage standards and AB 1680, the Make It FAIR Act. Most provisions take effect January 1, 2027. (CDI release 034, CDI release 035)

→ For program administrators and MGA operators: a disaster recovery plan on file with the Department turns a program's claims handling and timelines into a document the regulator holds.

Florida's rate cuts reach renters, with 12.8% off at American Modern. Commissioner Mike Yaworsky approved an average 12.8% decrease on American Modern Home Insurance Company's HO-4 renters business on October 2, affecting approximately 121,898 exposures and effective October 11 for new business and renewals. More than 30 Florida counties see decreases of 13.1% to 13.9%, with Orange County at 13.4% and Broward County at 13.8%. "The Office of Insurance Regulation is approving major rate decreases across the board, including decreases in insurance for our Florida renters," Yaworsky said. Neither the announcement nor the trade coverage gives a filing number. (Florida OIR release, ClickOrlando)

→ For MGA operators and state entrants: a Florida renters program now quotes against American Modern rates that are 12.8% lower on average from October 11, across roughly 121,898 exposures.

North Carolina's Rate Bureau asked for 68.3% on dwellings. The first 5.0% arrived October 1. The first of two approved 5.0% statewide average increases on North Carolina dwelling policies took effect October 1, with the second scheduled for October 1, 2027. The North Carolina Rate Bureau had filed on October 30, 2025 under NCRI-134704186 for a 68.3% statewide overall increase across two years; Commissioner Mike Causey settled it on April 22, 2026 at 5.0% plus 5.0% and the scheduled July 6 hearing was cancelled. "I am happy that we have been able to save North Carolina consumers more than $268 million over what the insurance companies requested," Causey said. The settlement includes mitigation credits for fortified homes and roofs in eastern territories, and the 5.0% is a statewide average distributed by coverage, class and territory. (North Carolina DOI)

→ For state entrants and wholesalers: a 68.3% request settled at two 5.0% steps shows how far apart filed and approved can sit in North Carolina, and that dwelling rate is the benchmark from October 1.

Washington fined Allstate's property company $90,000 over claim handling and 86,705 defective declarations. Commissioner Patty Kuderer announced on September 30 that Allstate Vehicle and Property Insurance Company was fined $90,000. A market conduct review of 108 claims sampled from a 3,040-claim database found 16 violations across 9 claims, and separately found that Allstate failed to include required premium change transparency language on 86,705 home insurance policy declarations, 86,136 of which carried premium increases. "We take our role as a consumer protection agency seriously," Kuderer said. The same announcement fined USAA Casualty Insurance Company $140,000 over automobile claim handling, for a combined $230,000. (Washington OIC)

→ For program administrators and MGA operators: the bigger number in the Washington finding is 86,705, the declarations missing premium change transparency language, set against 16 violations in the claim sample.

The take

Homeowners underwriting had its best year since 2019, and in the same week the structures outside capital uses to reach that result were called riskier by the agency that measured both. AM Best put the line at a $16.5 billion underwriting profit on an 84.5 combined ratio on September 29, then on September 30 put fronting premium upwards of $30 billion and said unrated and unauthorized reinsurers are taking on more of the credit risk behind the paper. The buyers are named and the amounts are known: Stone Ridge's three funds at roughly $7.6 billion, Victory Pioneer's catastrophe bond fund at $2.76 billion, a $65.5 billion outstanding market and a record $18.9 billion of nine-month issuance. What is less visible is whose balance sheet absorbs a bad year, and $4.1 billion of the 2025 result was favorable reserve development with 47% of it concentrated in USAA, American Family, Liberty Mutual, Chubb and RenaissanceRe US. Public buyers have already applied their own discount. Orion180 closed at $9.44 on October 2 against a $12.00 offer price on September 17, and Bamboo has announced no revival of the offering it postponed on September 22.

If you front programs, read AM Best's September 30 report against your own reinsurer panel and move every unrated or unauthorized participant onto collateral before the January 1, 2027 renewal. If you run an MGA, draft Texas condition-based underwriting guidelines in time to comment on Docket 2874, and reset California runoff assumptions to the 24-month and 36-month clocks AB 2038 sets from January 1, 2027. If you allocate capital, restate the 84.5 without the $4.1 billion of favorable development before using 2025 as the entry case for a homeowners program.


First Notice tracks the U.S. residential property program market: new MGA licenses, program launches, rate and form filings, fronting partnerships, and insurance litigation, from public regulatory and news sources. On the web: firstnoticeresearch.com

Why "First Notice"? In claims, first notice of loss is the first report that something has happened. This letter aims to be that report for the program market.

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