The residential program market, before it hits the trades.
Issue #12 · October 19, 2026 · covering October 12 to 19
Isaias came in light, at the low end of what the brokers expected, and buyers kept paying up. SageSure took a stake in a $4.3 billion ILS manager, Porch agreed to buy Allied Trust's agency and carrier, and Orion180 drew five analyst targets, every one above a stock still under its $12.00 offer price.
Karen Clark & Company put privately insured losses from Hurricane Isaias at about $3 billion on October 15, and Moody's RMS followed on October 16 with a range of $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion and a best estimate of $3.5 billion. Three Florida carriers reported Panhandle claim counts in the hundreds and low thousands, and Florida Citizens had taken 860 claims by October 15 on about 8,800 policies in the ten exposed counties. Porch Group and the reciprocal exchange it manages agreed on October 14 to buy Allied Trust's managing general agency and its carrier for base prices of $95 million and $55 million, adding about $200 million of reciprocal written premium and a Louisiana book. SafePoint came to market on October 16 seeking $250 million for nine states of named storm cover at spread guidance well below what it paid in February.
SageSure One lands in California on Olympus paper, with a $1 million floor and a $20 million ceiling. SageSure, the residential property managing general underwriter, extended its SageSure One premier homeowners offering into California on October 14 with Olympus Insurance Company providing up to $20 million in total insurable value. The release describes a non-admitted HO5 product, custom and open-perils, with Coverage A starting at $1 million, positioned between standard homeowners and the high-net-worth market. Homes in Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones may qualify with a verified IBHS Wildfire Prepared Home Plus designation plus noncombustible structural hardening and defensible space standards, and each account is serviced by a single consultant from quote through renewal who also acts as claims liaison. SageSure One now sells in California, Florida, New York and Texas, and the Olympus capacity joins SURE's and SafePort Insurance Company's existing California homeowners programs. SageSure operates in 16 states, protects nearly one million policyholders and manages more than $3.3 billion of in-force premium. Terrence McLean, President and Chief Executive Officer of SageSure, said "For too long, premier accounts have been placed with markets that weren't built for them." No premium target or policy count was disclosed for the California expansion. (Business Wire via FinancialContent, Insurance Journal)
→ For HNW incumbents and MGA operators: A $1 million Coverage A floor and a $20 million insurable value ceiling on Olympus paper puts SageSure above the SURE and SafePort programs and below the high-net-worth carriers, and the verified IBHS Wildfire Prepared Home Plus designation is the underwriting gate that makes a Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone risk writable at all.
Post-landfall estimates put Hurricane Isaias between $1 billion and the mid-single-digit billions, at or near the low end of what the brokers expected. Cotality opened the post-landfall estimates on October 12 at $2 billion to $3 billion of industry insured wind and storm surge loss. Verisk followed on October 13 at $1 billion to $2 billion for onshore property, with wind expected to account for the vast majority, covering residential, commercial and industrial property plus automobiles and privately insured storm surge, and excluding precipitation-induced flooding, National Flood Insurance Program losses, loss adjustment expenses and tornadoes spawned by the storm. Swiss insurance-linked securities manager Euler ILS Partners put the industry loss at $2 billion to $4 billion the same day, said "Current analysis indicates no impact on the portfolio" while noting the losses "may add to aggregate structures," and said loss assessment is "particularly challenging because most damage resulted from complex, highly localised atmospheric turbulence." Fitch estimated on October 13 that "industry losses could reach the mid-single-digit billions of dollars." Karen Clark & Company estimated about $3 billion of privately insured loss on October 15, which Insurance Journal reported as comparable to Hurricane Idalia, a Category 3 storm that hit a less-populated part of the Florida Panhandle in 2023, against an estimated $56 billion for Hurricane Ian in 2022. Moody's RMS closed the week on October 16 at $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion with a best estimate of $3.5 billion, of which storm surge, inland flooding and National Flood Insurance Program losses account for about $250 million, using Version 25 of its North Atlantic Hurricane Models and Version 1.3 of its US Inland Flood HD Model. Jeff Waters, Director of North Atlantic Hurricane Models at Moody's, said "we expect the overall extent and severity of insured losses from this event to be manageable for the market," and Raj Vojjala, Managing Director of Modeling and Analytics, attributed losses to "a high incidence of treefall-driven roof damage in the affected area" alongside possible roof replacements under Florida's 25% roof rule. The storm made landfall near Destin, Florida at approximately 8:30 p.m. Central on October 9 as a Category 2 with 105 mph sustained winds and a minimum central pressure of 971 millibars, the ninth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season. Before landfall, Gallagher Re had put losses in the mid-single-digit billions including National Flood Insurance Program gross claims, BMS Group's Andrew Siffert had raised his range to $4 billion to $6 billion on October 9 from $3 billion to $5 billion a day earlier, and Marsh Re had said mid-single digits of billions. (Insurance Business on Cotality, Verisk, Artemis on Euler ILS, Reinsurance News on Fitch, Insurance Journal on KCC, Artemis on Moody's RMS, Reinsurance News on Moody's RMS, pre-landfall broker estimates)
→ For reinsurers/ILS and fronting carriers: Every post-landfall estimate came in at or below BMS's final $4 billion to $6 billion pre-landfall range, with only Moody's RMS's $4.5 billion top end inside it, and Moody's RMS attributing the loss to treefall roof damage and Florida's 25% roof rule puts the severity in roof replacement, which is where a Panhandle homeowners program's deductible structure either holds or fails.
Panhandle claims ran in the hundreds and low thousands, and AM Best calls Isaias an earnings event. Three Florida carriers gave Panhandle claim counts as of Monday, October 12. People's Trust Insurance reported just over 400 claims out of about 8,000 insureds, Universal Property & Casualty about 3,000 claims on about 20,000 policies, and Security First about 300 claims out of about 15,000 policies in force, of which about five were considered severe. Melissa Burt DeVriese, president of Security First Insurance, compared the storm to Hurricane Michael in 2018, which cost insurers about $9 billion in Florida claims or about $12 billion in today's dollars, and said "So, about a tenth of that would make Isaias a billion-dollar storm." Matt Mercier, national director of community associations for CBIZ, said "So much of what we have seen has been below the deductible." Florida Citizens held about 8,800 policies in the ten-county Panhandle area at landfall per Office of Insurance Regulation data and had received 860 claims by October 15, mostly residential. AM Best expects Isaias to be an "earnings event" rather than a capital or solvency event, said it is "not expected to significantly deplete surplus levels" in a way that alters industry-wide Florida capacity, and said the depopulation of Citizens and a mild season so far will keep Citizens intact as the state's insurer of last resort. Fitch said on October 13 that it "does not expect Isaias' losses to exhaust catastrophe reinsurance protection for most Florida specialists; however, individual insurers with unique risk concentrations may report higher-than-expected gross losses," flagged newer unrated Florida specialists that built capital in improved conditions as "relatively untested by a major catastrophe event" and vulnerable where losses exceed their reinsurance limits, and said national primary insurers will keep a larger share of wind losses in Alabama and other affected states than in Florida because they use less reinsurance there. The strongest winds of 105 to 117 mph struck the western eyewall around Pensacola, Panama City Beach recorded 5.6 feet of surge per Gallagher Re, and 21 tornadoes were confirmed across the Southeast. The Office of Insurance Regulation had published no statewide claim figures as of October 19. (Insurance Journal, October 13, Insurance Journal, October 15, Reinsurance News on Fitch)
→ For fronting carriers and reinsurers/ILS: Fitch put the exposure on unrated Florida specialists with losses above their limits and on national primaries retaining Alabama wind.
SafePoint is back for $250 million, now across nine states, with guidance under February's 8%. SafePoint Insurance Company came to market on October 16 targeting $250 million from Nature Coast Re Ltd. (Series 2026-2), its sixth catastrophe bond under that vehicle and its tenth sponsorship in total. Covered entities include SafePoint plus the two reciprocal exchanges it operates, Cajun Underwriters Reciprocal Exchange in Louisiana and Manatee Insurance Exchange in Florida, which writes homeowner and business owner risks. The $100 million Class AA notes attach at $300 million and exhaust at $600 million, with a 0.86% initial attachment probability and 0.73% initial base expected loss at spread guidance of 4.00% to 4.75%. The $150 million Class A notes attach at $300 million and exhaust at $1.3 billion, with a 3.18% initial attachment probability and 1.66% initial base expected loss at guidance of 6.75% to 7.50%. The $300 million attachment applies after inuring reinsurance. Covered perils are named storm across Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas, which Artemis described as the widest range of US states of any catastrophe bond in SafePoint's history. Both tranches are indemnity and per-occurrence across four years of cover from December 1, and both have room to upsize. February 2026's Nature Coast Re 2026-1 was also $250 million, at a 1.74% initial expected loss and an 8% spread. The deal was at target and guidance, with no pricing announced. (Artemis)
→ For reinsurers/ILS and MGA operators: Class A guidance of 6.75% to 7.50% on a 1.66% expected loss, against 8% on 1.74% in February 2026, is eight months of repricing in one line, and the nine-state footprint reaches past Florida and Louisiana.
Allstate's September catastrophe losses were $220 million, its lightest month of the aggregate period. Allstate reported estimated September catastrophe losses of $220 million pre-tax, or $173 million after tax, on October 15, and third-quarter catastrophe losses of $1.65 billion pre-tax or about $1.30 billion after tax. The monthly run for the annual aggregate risk period that began in April 2026 is $870 million in April, $289 million in May, $563 million in June, $682 million in July, $748 million in August and $220 million in September, for $3.372 billion to date. Allstate's current annual aggregate protection is a $150 million Class B tranche of Sanders Re III Ltd. (Series 2023-1) attaching at $4.78 billion and exhausting at $5.28 billion, covering all US states except Florida, with a $50 million per-event deductible so only events of at least $50 million erode the retention. Allstate also bought a $1 billion aggregate excess of loss layer at its 2026 renewal, attaching at $8.5 billion with a $1 million event deductible. The monthly release gives no event count and no premium figures, and the reinsurance structure and monthly sequence come from Artemis. September predates the October 9 landfall entirely, so Isaias falls into the fourth quarter. (PR Newswire, Artemis)
→ For reinsurers/ILS: Allstate has run $3.372 billion of pre-tax catastrophe losses since April against a $4.78 billion attachment on the $150 million Sanders Re III Class B tranche, and the $50 million per-event deductible widens that gap further as Isaias enters the fourth quarter.
SageSure took a stake in a $4.3 billion Bermuda ILS manager, and Artemis reports TransRe has exited. SageSure made a strategic investment in Pillar Capital Management, the Bermuda collateralized reinsurance and insurance-linked securities manager founded in 2008, in a deal reported on October 11. Pillar held about $4.3 billion of assets under management as of June 30, 2026. Pillar was jointly owned by its management team and TransRe, a Berkshire Hathaway company, and Artemis reported from its own sourcing that TransRe has exited its stake. The management team will "continue to hold a substantial ownership stake in the business," and Stephen Velotti, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, and Tara Railton, Chief Operating Officer, will continue to lead Pillar. Stake size, price and other terms were not disclosed. Howden Capital Markets & Advisory was exclusive financial advisor to SageSure. Velotti said "We are excited to embark on this next chapter with SageSure," and Terrence McLean, President and Chief Executive Officer of SageSure, said "I believe the two organizations could not be a better fit as partners." John Stamatis, Co-Head of North America at Howden Capital Markets & Advisory, described the deal as showing "growing convergence between traditional underwriting platforms and third-party capital." (Artemis)
→ For MGA operators and reinsurers/ILS: TransRe's exit, as reported by Artemis, and SageSure's entry move part-ownership of a $4.3 billion ILS manager from a Berkshire Hathaway reinsurer to a coastal homeowners MGU, with terms and stake sizes undisclosed.
Porch and its reciprocal exchange agreed to buy Allied Trust's agency and carrier, splitting fee from risk. Porch Group and the Porch Insurance Reciprocal Exchange signed a definitive agreement on October 14 to acquire Allied Trust's managing general agency and its insurance carrier. Porch Group takes the MGA and a captive reinsurance entity for an aggregate base purchase price of $95 million, being $75 million in cash plus an expected $20 million in Porch shares, while the Reciprocal acquires the carrier for an initial base price of $55 million in cash, subject to adjustment for the carrier's statutory surplus and indebtedness at closing. The Reciprocal owes a further $50 million of deferred consideration over the 12 months after closing, settleable in cash or in Porch shares it already holds. Allied Trust operates in Louisiana, Texas, South Carolina and North Carolina, with Louisiana accounting for almost half of its 2025 premiums and representing a new state for the Reciprocal. Porch expects the deal to add about $200 million of Reciprocal Written Premium and $25 million of Adjusted EBITDA excluding the Reciprocal in the first full year after closing, and to be approximately statutory-surplus neutral for the Reciprocal. Matt Ehrlichman, Chief Executive Officer of Porch Group, said the transaction will "add a meaningful presence in Louisiana, and bring a strong team, a healthy company, and over a decade of claims data," and said that assuming a January 1, 2027 close it positions Porch for 2027 results of "more than $900 million of Reciprocal Written Premium, more than 360 thousand Reciprocal Policies Written and more than $180 million of Adjusted EBITDA (Excluding Reciprocal)." Closing is expected in the first quarter of 2027 subject to regulatory approvals. Porch also plans to file an at-the-market equity program allowing the Reciprocal or Porch Group to sell Porch shares over time, which for the Reciprocal would convert part of its existing holdings into statutory surplus. No Allied Trust policy count, surplus figure or carrier legal name was disclosed. (Porch press release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Reinsurance News, Insurance Journal)
→ For MGA operators and PE-VC investors: The split is the story: agency and captive to Porch Group for $95 million, carrier to the Reciprocal for $55 million plus $50 million deferred, and an at-the-market program that can turn Porch shares the Reciprocal already holds into statutory surplus.
Five analysts like Orion180 more than the market does: targets of $12.90 to $20.00, stock at $8.95. Orion180 Insurance Group drew five analyst initiations on October 13 as its post-IPO quiet period ended. Citizens started at Market Outperform with a $20.00 target, from analyst Matthew J. Carletti. RBC Capital started at Outperform with $15.00, UBS at Buy with $14.00, Goldman Sachs at Buy with $13.00 and Deutsche Bank at Buy with $12.90. The stock traded at $8.95, its close before the October 13 initiations, which RBC framed as roughly 68% upside and Goldman as roughly 45%. RBC described Orion180 as distributing homeowners insurance in 14 states as a managing general agent, with reinsurance capacity, internalized fronting capabilities, internal claims businesses and technology offerings, and founder Ken Gregg as controlling shareholder. UBS cited the number one position in excess and surplus homeowners insurance in several states, a product being replicated in Texas, Florida and California, and forecast 37% managed premium growth and 45% EBITDA growth over 2026 to 2030, noting that owning its fronting carrier gives flexibility if reinsurance capacity tightens. UBS put the stock at 11 times adjusted 2027 earnings against 12 times for commercial lines, 11 times for personal lines and 15 times for brokers. Orion180 priced its IPO at $12.00 in mid-September against a marketed $15.00 to $17.00 range, raising $240 million on 20 million Class A shares, and opened at $11.50 for a $1.14 billion debut valuation. (Investing.com on Goldman Sachs, Investing.com on RBC, GuruFocus on Citizens, Investing.com on UBS, The Stock Observer on Deutsche Bank)
→ For PE-VC investors and MGA operators: All five initiations set a target above the $12.00 September offer price while the shares changed hands at $8.95, its close before the October 13 initiations, so the most recent homeowners MGA IPO is marked at a discount to its own IPO by the market.
Baldwin filed its merger proxy for a $7.7 billion take-private at $32.50 a share. The Baldwin Insurance Group filed a preliminary merger proxy dated October 15 for the take-private announced in September. Eligible Class A shareholders would receive $32.50 in cash per share without interest, with total funds required of about $7.7 billion excluding fees and expenses. The buyer is Square Acquisition Parent, Inc., affiliated with Sequence AI Holdings, Inc. and DFO Private Investments, L.P. Rollover holders own about 15.0% of common stock and have agreed to contribute or retain about 7.3%. The merger is not conditioned on the buyer obtaining financing, with DFO providing an equity commitment letter and a limited guarantee and a separate debt commitment letter covering the debt. The company termination fee is $170,334,000 and the parent termination fee is $276,218,000, with the liability of the buyer, the merger subsidiaries and DFO combined capped at $281,468,000. Completion is expected in the first quarter of 2027, with an initial end date of June 14, 2027 extendable to September 14, 2027 in certain circumstances. The special meeting date remains a blank placeholder, so no shareholder vote is scheduled, and the filing describes a no-shop with a superior proposal exception. (Baldwin preliminary merger proxy via StockTitan)
→ For PE-VC investors and program administrators: The $276,218,000 parent termination fee against a $170,334,000 company fee prices the buyer's execution risk at 1.6 times the seller's.
Stand raises $70 million at $1 billion and finds its chief financial officer at Nephila. Stand, the San Francisco wildfire and wind resilience insurer, announced a $70 million Series C on October 15 at a $1 billion valuation led by Saga Ventures, taking total funding to $130 million. Other investors named are Lowercarbon, Eclipse, Equal Ventures, Inspired Capital, Neotribe and Jackson Square Ventures. Stand builds digital property models and simulates performance in wildfires and high winds using building materials, construction methods, surroundings and local weather, then recommends improvements, guides homeowners through the work, verifies completion and prices insurance to reflect the reduced risk, with premium reductions of up to 70%. Insured property value exceeds $10 billion, up tenfold from $1 billion a year earlier. Dan Preston, co-founder and Chief Executive, said "Disasters follow the laws of physics, and insurance should too." Tony Landi joined as Chief Financial Officer from Nephila, where he was Head of Strategic Growth, having previously run reinsurance and capital management at Openly and portfolio management at Everest Re. Drew Saad, President of Property and Casualty and formerly Chief Underwriting Officer at PURE Insurance, said "the opportunity now is to build an insurance operation that matches it." No states, carrier partner or reinsurance panel were disclosed. (Reinsurance News)
→ For PE-VC investors and reinsurers/ILS: Saga Ventures priced a wildfire mitigation underwriter at $1 billion on $10 billion of insured property value, a book that grew tenfold in a year, with Nephila's Head of Strategic Growth as chief financial officer.
Catastrophes cost Travelers' Personal Insurance segment $380 million, or 9.2 points of its combined ratio. Travelers reported third-quarter core income of $1.947 billion, or $9.18 per diluted share, on October 16, up from $1.867 billion and $8.14 a year earlier, with a consolidated combined ratio of 86.8% and an underlying combined ratio of 84.1%. Consolidated catastrophe losses net of reinsurance were $538 million, or 4.8 points of the combined ratio, up from $402 million and 3.6 points. Personal Insurance catastrophe losses were $380 million, or 9.2 points, up from $263 million and 6.0 points, so the segment carried most of the consolidated catastrophe load. Personal Insurance posted a pre-tax underwriting gain of $664 million and segment income of $706 million after tax, down $101 million, with a combined ratio of 83.5%, up 2.2 points, and an underlying combined ratio of 76.7%, an improvement of 1.0 point. Personal Insurance net written premiums were $4.403 billion, down 7%, or down 3% excluding the Canadian divestiture, while consolidated net written premiums were flat at $11.480 billion. Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said "We are pleased to report excellent third quarter results." No separate homeowners combined ratio or homeowners catastrophe figure was broken out. (Travelers third quarter results via StockTitan)
→ For HNW incumbents and program administrators: The segment's combined ratio rose 2.2 points while catastrophes went to 9.2 points from 6.0 and the underlying book improved 1.0 point, so the rise in catastrophe points more than accounts for it, on premium down 3% excluding the Canadian divestiture.
Progressive's book grew 6%. Property stayed put at 3.652 million policies. Progressive reported a September combined ratio of 90.0 on October 14, against 100.4 in September 2025, with net income of $630 million, up 107% from $305 million. The third-quarter combined ratio was 88.7 against 89.5, with net income of $2.542 billion, down 3%. September net premiums written were $7.255 billion, up 2%, and net premiums earned $7.160 billion, up 5%. Policies in force at September 30, 2026 were 40.489 million in total, up 6%, with total Personal Lines at 39.237 million, up 6%, agency auto up 7% to 11.347 million, direct auto up 8% to 16.848 million and special lines up 6% to 7.390 million. Property policies in force were 3.652 million against 3.651 million, flat year over year, and Commercial Lines rose 5% to 1.252 million. The monthly release carries no catastrophe loss figure, no Property segment combined ratio and no Property premium figures, and makes no reference to Isaias. (Progressive)
→ For state entrants and MGA operators: Property is the one Progressive line that stood still: agency auto, direct auto, special lines and commercial each rose 5% to 8% while property sat at 3.652 million, so a homeowners program is not up against a Progressive property push right now.
October 15 at the California FAIR Plan: dwelling fire rates up 29.1%, renewal commission down to 3%. The California FAIR Plan's approved average dwelling fire rate increase of 29.1% took effect on October 15, applied at renewal, under California Department of Insurance file 25-2174 and SERFF filing MOCC-134657692, which closed on April 6, 2026. The Plan's commission restructuring, announced on August 17, applies to policies with an effective date on or after October 15 and cuts new business commission from 10% to 7% and renewal commission from 8% to 3%. The affected lines are Dwelling Fire, Commercial, Commercial High Value and Businessowners, and California Earthquake Authority business is unaffected. The FAIR Plan said it determined that restructuring broker commissions was necessary to support its long-term financial stability, citing growth in policies in force as traditional insurers scale back, and said recently approved premium increases are expected to offset the financial impact. The Plan had 696,562 policies in force as of June 2026, a 157% increase since September 2022, with about $768 billion of exposure and about $2 billion of written premium (filing detail). Hardening discounts run up to 16.4% off the wildfire portion of premium, and because the increase is weighted toward that portion, some policyholders will see decreases. No primary FAIR Plan bulletin was available, so these figures rest on trade and agent-association reporting, and no source confirms the commission change was implemented as scheduled or deferred. (First Connect, American Agents Alliance)
→ For wholesalers and state entrants: A producer renewing FAIR Plan dwelling fire would earn 3% on a premium that just rose 29.1%, a different calculation for keeping any of the Plan's 696,562 policies in the residual market.
Colorado began enforcing wildfire risk-score disclosure and a formal appeal clock on homeowners underwriting. The Colorado Division of Insurance announced on October 12 that homeowners protections and transparency rights under House Bill 25-1182, the state's risk model law, have taken effect. Insurers using wildfire risk scores for rating or underwriting must consider qualified property-level and community-level mitigation, and insurers that do not build mitigation into their models must give discounts to policyholders who document qualified work. Insurers must send a written notice carrying the property's wildfire risk score or classification, a plain-language explanation of how it was calculated, the full range of possible scores, the features that affected it, the effect of mitigation and notice of the right to appeal. The notice is due within 15 days of a completed application for new applicants and with the renewal offer or the nonrenewal notice for existing policyholders, and those disclosures began on October 1. On appeal, the insurer or the FAIR Plan must review mitigation evidence and update the score within 30 days, acknowledge a formal appeal within 10 calendar days and issue a final written reconsideration decision within 30 calendar days, continuing coverage at least 10 calendar days past that decision if it runs beyond policy expiration. The Division states that the requirements established by House Bill 25-1182 apply to admitted insurers and the Colorado FAIR Plan and do not apply to non-admitted or surplus lines insurers. New Regulation 5-1-29, covering homeowners filing requirements for wildfire models and mitigation discounts, takes effect January 1, 2027. Commissioner Michael Conway said the law requires insurers to be "open with homeowners about how wildfire mitigation can lead to potential savings." The Division cited CSAA General Insurance Company offering a 15% discount on the wildfire portion of premium for homes with an IBHS Wildfire Prepared Home Enhanced or Essential designation. (Colorado Division of Insurance, Regulation 5-1-29 adoption notice)
→ For MGA operators and program administrators: On admitted paper a Colorado wildfire risk comes with the 15-day disclosure and the 10-day and 30-day appeal clocks; written non-admitted, House Bill 25-1182 does not apply, and Regulation 5-1-29 filing requirements arrive January 1, 2027.
Florida ordered insurers to report Isaias claims twice in three days, surplus lines included. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation issued a data call notice for Hurricane Isaias catastrophe reporting on October 12 under section 624.307, Florida Statutes, with submission deadlines of Tuesday, October 13 and Thursday, October 15, data due by 12 p.m. Eastern for each. The call binds all insurers authorized to write any of 20 named Florida lines, including Homeowners Multi-Peril, Fire, Allied Lines, Farmowners Multi-Peril, Commercial Multi-Peril, Private Flood, Mobile Home Multi-Peril, Mobile Home Physical Damage, Surplus Lines Property and Casualty, and Surplus Lines Federally Authorized. Insurers file on the simplified 2026 Catastrophe Reporting Form through the Insurance Regulation Filing System, on an individual insurer basis, cumulatively as of each reporting date, and insurers with no Florida policies in force in the listed lines, or policies but no claims, must file a one-time "No Data" report. Each filer must download a fresh template because previously downloaded templates will not work. The notice carries no reference number and no quotes, and the Office had published no aggregated results as of October 19. (Florida OIR data call notice, OIR newsroom)
→ For program administrators and wholesalers: A surplus lines property program writing Florida owed the same cumulative claim file as an admitted homeowners carrier, by noon on October 13 and again on October 15, on a template pulled fresh for each submission.
Louisiana federal courts are staying bad-faith suits for defective pre-suit notice, and the state Supreme Court has the question. Nicholas P. Arnold, a partner at Blue Williams LLC, documented a line of Eastern District of Louisiana decisions enforcing La. R.S. 22:1892.2 in an analysis published October 14. The statute, created by Act 3 of 2024, requires an insured to give 60 days' written notice of the alleged violation before suing over certain catastrophic losses involving immovable property, and provides for an automatic stay where suit is filed before proper notice. In Castro-Rochez v. Allied Trust Insurance Co., docket 2:2025cv02431, the court held that the insureds' demand package, which included an engineering report and an estimate, described the damage but failed to notify the insurer of an alleged statutory violation, and stayed the suit. In 3612 Edenborn LLC v. Chaucer Insurance Co. DAC the insured argued that a repair estimate sent more than 60 days before suit satisfied the requirement, and the court disagreed and stayed the case until adequate notice was given. In Sicilian Foods LLC v. Atain Specialty Insurance Co. another Eastern District judge enforced the stay and explained how the cure period lets an insurer reduce statutory penalty exposure. Arnold wrote that "The emerging cases show that sending an estimate and giving notice of bad faith may be two different acts," and said the Louisiana Supreme Court is considering a writ application on the issue. The analysis gives no decision dates, no judge names and no dollar amounts, and two of the three captions appear commercial. (Claims Journal)
→ For MGA operators and fronting carriers: In the Eastern District of Louisiana a repair estimate has not counted as notice of a statutory violation, which gives the insurer its 60-day cure window, and a writ application before the Louisiana Supreme Court could settle the point.
The take
Private buyers paid up for residential program platforms and the capital behind them in the same week the most recent homeowners MGA IPO traded below its own offer price. Artemis reported on October 12 that Pillar Capital Management manages $4.3 billion and that TransRe has exited, after SageSure's stake was announced. Porch Group and the Porch Insurance Reciprocal Exchange agreed on October 14 to pay $95 million for Allied Trust's managing general agency and captive reinsurer and $55 million for its carrier, plus $50 million deferred, for about $200 million of reciprocal written premium and a Louisiana book. Saga Ventures priced Stand at $1 billion on October 15 on $10 billion of insured property value, and Baldwin's October 15 proxy put $7.7 billion behind a $32.50 per share take-private. Against all of that, Orion180 traded at $8.95, its close before the October 13 initiations, while five firms initiated coverage at $12.90 to $20.00, every target above the $12.00 it priced at a month earlier. The capacity underneath these businesses kept getting cheaper. SafePoint guided the Class A tranche of Nature Coast Re 2026-2 at 6.75% to 7.50% on October 16 against the 8% spread it paid in February 2026 on a slightly higher expected loss. Hurricane Isaias did nothing to interrupt that, with Verisk at $1 billion to $2 billion, Karen Clark & Company at about $3 billion, Moody's RMS at a $3.5 billion best estimate and AM Best calling it an earnings event. Regulators spent the week on the price and the paperwork of homeowners underwriting. The California FAIR Plan's 29.1% dwelling fire increase and its cut in renewal commission from 8% to 3% share an October 15 effective date, Colorado's House Bill 25-1182 disclosure and appeal clocks are now running ahead of Regulation 5-1-29 on January 1, 2027, and Florida collected Isaias claim files from admitted and surplus lines writers alike by noon on October 13 and October 15.
If you front programs, set your January 1 ceded-cost assumption against SafePoint's Class AA guidance of 4.00% to 4.75% on a 0.73% expected loss, and take Fitch's October 13 point seriously that national primaries will retain a larger share of Alabama wind losses than of Florida losses because they buy less reinsurance there. If you run an MGA, build the Colorado disclosure and appeal workflow now, because the 15-day notice and the 10-day and 30-day appeal clocks under House Bill 25-1182 bind admitted paper today while Regulation 5-1-29's filing requirements arrive January 1, 2027. If you allocate capital, note that Allied Trust's agency and captive changed hands at a $95 million base for about $25 million of expected Adjusted EBITDA, about 3.8 times, a figure to set beside the multiple implied by Orion180's public market value.
First Notice tracks the U.S. residential property program market: new MGA licenses, program launches, rate and form filings, fronting partnerships, and insurance litigation, from public regulatory and news sources. On the web: firstnoticeresearch.com
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